The 4D ETF System
Dashboard →Adaptive ETF exposure.
A weekly blend of equity ETFs, defensive assets, and cash.
- Weekly ETF signals and execution dates
- Optional leverage for higher return potential
Weekly signals · staggered sleevesON2
Weekly ETF and stock trading systems.Built for changing markets.
| System | CAGR | MaxDD | Time ≥10% below peak | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4D ETF | 14.0% | -14.0% | 3.0% | 0.99 |
| 4D Stocks Balanced | 18.0% | -17.8% | 8.3% | 1.06 |
| SPY | 11.0% | -55.2% | 33.4% | 0.52 |
| 80/20 SPY/IEF | 10.0% | -44.8% | 24.0% | 0.56 |
Hypothetical results · Feb 6, 1995–October 16, 2026, common comparison sessions, including modeled buying and selling costs at sleeve rotations. Sharpe uses annualized daily returns above the same cash/T-bill proxy for all four portfolios. Both systems use the same market-state framework. Earlier history for legacy ETFs, including IEF, uses proxies; FXF and IBIT enter only after 200 actual ETF sessions. Explore the evidence ↓
Join for early access and research updates. Founding members receive six months of free access to the 4D Stock Picker when the subscription service launches.
FOUR GATE ALPHA / WEEKLY VIEW•••
Current equity allocationsOct 9, 2026
4D ETF SystemON2
100% equity budget
SPY 73.5%QQQ 26.5%
4D Stock PickerBalanced tier
50% stocks50% ETFs
19 selected companies5 allocation tiers
ON means a favorable equity trend; OFF means an unfavorable trend. The number (0–3) counts supporting momentum, trend-quality and volume signals.
Latest saved model signals · October 9, 2026
Model targets before whole-share rounding. Not account holdings.
EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE
A safer journey.
4D systems spend far less time underwater than the benchmarks.
Growth of $10,000
4D ETF System4D Stock Picker · BalancedSPY
Logarithmic scale
Time spent in drawdown
4D ETF System4D Stock Picker · BalancedSPY
Percentage of trading sessions below each drawdown level
February 6, 1995–October 16, 2026 · Common comparison sessions, including modeled buying and selling costs at sleeve rotations. ETF and Balanced Stock Picker. Hypothetical results; legacy ETF proxies, FXF/IBIT actual history after warmup.
ETF leverage overlay results
| Leverage tier | CAGR | MaxDD | Time ≥10% below peak | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x | 13.9% | -13.9% | 6.9% | 1.06 |
| 1.5x | 15.2% | -15.2% | 7.3% | 1.06 |
| 2x | 16.4% | -16.6% | 8.9% | 1.03 |
| 2.5x | 17.9% | -18.0% | 12.5% | 1.02 |
| 3x | 19.3% | -19.3% | 16.6% | 1.00 |
Hypothetical ETF System results with modeled costs and yielding cash. The overlay applies only when its separate leverage gate is ON; gate-off periods use the baseline allocation. The 1x row is the baseline over the same dates. This actual-ETF comparison begins in 2010 and is separate from the 30-year results. Explore leverage evidence →
The 4D Stock Picker
Dashboard →Ranked stock picks.
Five tiers combine individual stocks with an ETF allocation.
- Weekly stock picks and model weights
- Five tiers with interactive backtests
Weekly rotation · typical three-week hold5 tiers
A CONSISTENT SYSTEM
Friday signals, Monday execution.
Three staggered sleeves spread the rotation across weeks. Each cohort normally remains in place for three weeks.
SleeveWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6
1UpdateHoldHoldUpdateHoldHold
2HoldUpdateHoldHoldUpdateHold
3HoldHoldUpdateHoldHoldUpdate
Each sleeve represents roughly one-third of the portfolio. Refresh it every third week. Monday holidays shift execution to the next market session.
1
Read the signal
Review the latest completed signal, its market state, and the date it applies to.
2
Review the allocation
Inspect the rotating sleeve’s model targets. The next trading session is identified alongside the signal.
3
Track the evidence
Return each week for the next rotation and an updated view of the published record.
JOIN AT THE BEGINNING
Become a founding member.
Follow the research as Four Gate Alpha develops. Join for early access to the subscription service, publication updates, and selected research.
6 months free4D Stock Picker access at launch
Service planned for early 2027
Service planned for early 2027
Get on the founding-member list
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Research and product updates. Unsubscribe whenever you wish.
BEFORE YOU JOIN
A few useful answers.
What does joining the list cost?
Nothing. Joining the email list does not purchase a subscription. Founding members receive six months of free access to the 4D Stock Picker when the subscription service launches.
Can I explore the systems before signing up?
Yes. The ETF and Stock Picker dashboards are available to explore, including current model information and historical evidence.
Are these results from a live managed account?
No. The performance displays are historical simulations and model results. They are not subscriber account returns; real execution, cash, and share rounding can produce different outcomes.
Does Four Gate Alpha manage my portfolio?
No. Four Gate Alpha publishes general research and model signals. It does not provide personalized portfolio advice or execute orders through this website.